Consumer confidence in Uzbekistan continues to decline amidst inflation concerns

The most significant decline was observed in the sub-index measuring conditions for major purchases, which fell to 84.2 points, a drop of 6.5 points from the previous month. Only 39.3% of respondents (-2.6%) felt the current time was favorable for such purchases. This decline was most pronounced among the youth, with over 6% drop to 39.4%. Conversely, the percentage of positive responses slightly increased among those aged 45-59, reaching 42%.

Personal financial assessments also showed a decrease, with the index dropping to 131.6 points, although slightly better than the previous year. About 60% of participants noted an improvement in their financial situation (62.2% in October). However, a decline in positive responses was recorded across all age groups, except for the elderly (53% compared to 49%). The youngest age group showed the highest level of optimism at 69.2%.

Regionally, the lowest level of consumer confidence was recorded in Tashkent region (55%), while the greatest decline occurred in Fergana (57.5%, a drop of 10.8% over the month). The highest positive responses were noted in Syrdarya region (67.2%).

Inflationary expectations also rose, with 50.7% of respondents (+2.1%) noting significant price increases over the past year, and 30.8% (+0.9%) expecting prices to rise over the next month. Meat prices were most frequently cited as having increased, while respondents were also noting higher prices for fruits, vegetables, and oils.

In addition, there was a more pronounced growth in inflation expectations, with over a quarter of respondents expecting inflation to accelerate. On a yearly basis, this figure reached 26.5% (+7.7%), and on a monthly basis, it was 26.2% (+2%).

On the other hand, expectations of currency depreciation slowed, despite the ongoing weakening of the sum against the dollar. A significant drop in the currency exchange rate over the next month was expected by 43.5% (+0.8%), and 60.5% expected such a decline over the next year.