Uzbekneftegaz forecasts a decrease in gas production in 2025

The chairman of Uzbekneftegaz, Bakhodirjon Sidikov, shared the updated projections during a presentation to the president of Uzbekistan on December 19.

To achieve this revised production goal, the company plans to drill new wells and repair existing ones.

The company, which has been undergoing significant transformation, aims to reduce production costs by 8% and improve its international credit rating. Uzbekneftegaz also plans to secure $2 billion in foreign loans by 2025 to fund production and exploration projects.

For the current winter season, Uzbekistan’s consumers are expected to receive 21 billion cubic meters of gas.

Declining production and increased imports

Despite the planned measures, gas production continues to decline. In October 2024, gas output from large enterprises in Uzbekistan dropped to 3.6 billion cubic meters, a 5% decrease compared to October 2023 (3.79 billion cubic meters) and 14.8% lower than September 2022 (4.23 billion cubic meters).

From January to October 2024, gas production totaled 37.1 billion cubic meters, down 4.8% (1.87 billion cubic meters) compared to the same period in 2023. Compared to the same period in 2019 (50.1 billion cubic meters), the decrease is 13 billion cubic meters—greater than the annual household gas consumption in 2022.

Meanwhile, Uzbekistan’s gas imports reached $1.36 billion from the beginning of the year, 2.4 times higher than in the first 10 months of 2023. Russia and Turkmenistan have announced plans to increase gas exports to Uzbekistan.

Gas exports from Uzbekistan rose to $540.4 million, marking a 17.9% increase. However, the government has previously announced plans to halt gas exports entirely by 2025 to prioritize domestic consumption.

Trends in gas production at Uzbekneftegaz

Gas production at Uzbekneftegaz's fields and joint projects has been steadily declining.

In 2022, the company forecasted production of 34 billion cubic meters, but the actual figure reached only 32.2 billion cubic meters. For 2023, the company revised its production forecast downward from 34.1 billion cubic meters to 32.3 billion cubic meters.

According to the state program, the production target for 2024 is set at 29.3 billion cubic meters. Achieving this goal involves contributions not only from Uzbekneftegaz but also from private companies like Sanoat Energetika Guruhi (Saneg), other private oil and gas companies, and foreign enterprises working under production-sharing agreements, including Lukoil, Gazprom, and Gas Project Development Central Asia AG.

Bekhzod Usmanov, the former first deputy chairman of Uzbekneftegaz, predicted in November 2022 that natural production from existing fields would continue to decline. Maintaining production at 34.1 billion cubic meters in 2024 would require compensating 4.6 billion cubic meters through exploration; by 2025, this figure rises to 7.1 billion cubic meters, and by 2026, to 9.6 billion cubic meters.

Financial decline and challenges

Uzbekneftegaz’s net profit for 2023 fell more than twofold, totaling 611.6 billion UZS. Over the past three years, the company's net profit has dropped fivefold.

While Uzbekneftegaz has invested hundreds of millions of dollars into increasing gas production, the company continues to face a decline in output.