CB: Uzbekistan’s inflation forecasts are falling again

Inflation expectations of Uzbek citizens began to decline after a jump in August, the Central Bank reports.

Based on the results of the September survey, the average predicted inflation rate for the next 12 months was 13.5% – minus 0.7 percent per month. The median figure dropped to 11%.

Exchange rate fluctuations remain the main factor in shaping forecasts for price increases – almost two-thirds of survey participants identified it. This is followed by higher prices for fuel (45%) and utilities (34%).

The share of speculative price increases (33%) and the influence of monopolies (32%) remain high. At the same time, the number of respondents who indicated an increase in wages and benefits decreased slightly (30%).

The Central Bank also provided a breakdown of expectations by income level. It follows that respondents with higher incomes predict a faster depreciation of their funds.

The lowest average figure for inflation was given by citizens with incomes of 2-3 million soums per month – 12.2%. At the same time, all groups with incomes of more than 7 million soums expect annual growth of 15% or more.

Businesses are also lowering their inflation forecasts, although at a slower rate than the general public. At the same time, they are still below the January peak level.

The average level of business inflation expectations in September was 14.2% (-0.2 percentage points), the median was 11.5%.

Exchange rate fluctuations also play a major role in shaping expectations here – they were indicated by 68% of respondents. It is followed by an increase in prices for fuel (42%) and housing and communal services (31%), as well as an increase in wages and benefits (29%).

Also, slightly more often compared to August, the rise in prices for transport (26%), interruptions in energy supply (21%) and the tax burden (20%) were noted.