Inflation forecasts dip in Uzbekistan amidst currency and fuel price stability

The inflation expectations of Uzbeks decreased slightly in March, according to a survey conducted by the Central Bank.

The average expected inflation rate over the next 12 months was 12.8%, down by 0.2 percentage points compared to February. The median indicator remained unchanged at 10.6%.

Tashkent returned to the first place with an expected inflation rate of 16.9%. Residents of the capital region and Samarkand estimated it at 14.3% and 13.6% respectively. The lowest indicators were noted in Jizzakh (9.9%), Karakalpakstan (10%), and Navoi (10.8%).

The most optimistic forecasts among professions were given by workers in the tourism business (10%), agriculture (10.4%), and commerce (10.6%). The highest estimates were among IT specialists (16.8%), constructors (14%), and banking workers (13.4%).

Currency exchange rate fluctuations maintain their leading position among factors influencing assessments (61%), followed by fuel prices (50%) and utility tariffs (42%). The proportion of speculative price surges increased (35%), while it decreased for transport expenses (29%).

For entrepreneurs, the average inflation rate fell by half a percent to 12.2%. The median forecast also remained unchanged (10.4%).

The tourism business provides the lowest inflation estimates for the year (10.8%), with lower rates for manufacturing and catering (11.5%). The highest estimates were given in the culture and entertainment sector (15%), IT (13.6%), and education (12.9%).

Among the business community, capital entrepreneurs rate future inflation the highest (14.4%), followed by Kashkadarya (13.3%) and Khorezm (13.2%). In Karakalpakstan (10.3%), Namangan (11.1%), and Bukhara (11.3%), inflation expectations were the lowest.

The main factor affecting business forecasts remained the currency exchange rate dynamics (61%), with energy prices in second place (44%). They are followed by utility rates (38%), transportation costs (33%), and raw material expenses (28%).