IMF projects strong GDP growth for Uzbekistan in 2024 and 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 5.6% growth in Uzbekistan's GDP for the current year, with an anticipated increase to 5.7% in 2025, according to a report published on the IMF’s official website.

In the first half of 2024, the real GDP growth rate was recorded at 6.4% year-on-year. However, due to regulated energy price increases in early May, annual inflation — measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — rose from 8% at the end of April to approximately 10.5% in recent months.

"Uzbekistan’s economy continues to experience robust growth. The outlook remains positive, though risks and opportunities are present," the IMF stated.

The report predicts that inflation will gradually decrease as a result of necessary tightening in monetary and fiscal policies, as well as a reduction in the impact of rising energy prices. IMF experts advise that Uzbekistan's monetary policy should aim to bring inflation down to the Central Bank's target of 5%.

"IMF staff recommends that the Central Bank of Uzbekistan maintain its tight monetary policy stance until there is clear evidence that inflation is steadily moving toward the target," the statement added.

In addition, the IMF emphasized the need for financial sector reforms to align Uzbekistan's banking supervision with international standards. The organization also advised Uzbek authorities to continue gradually phasing out directed lending practices, which would improve the efficiency of credit allocation while increasing access to credit for the private sector.

The IMF’s comments came at the conclusion of a team visit to Uzbekistan, led by Yasser Abdih, which took place from September 16.

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